Episode 165: EMERGENCY PODCAST; Karl Anthony Towns and Julius Randle Trade

Adam and Russell break away from our normal broadcast time to fully break down the Karl Anthony Towns to New York and Julius Randle to the Wolves. We chat through salaries, team impacts and of course, card values. Jump in for this bonus episode!!

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Transcript

00:00.54
Adz
All right, whenever you're ready to cue the cue, no alarm tone.

00:02.84
youcantcompthis
all right let's go i am ready no no music today just like straight into it just like emergency pod yeah uh i don't have one

00:13.87
Adz
Don't have an alarm tone.

00:15.16
youcantcompthis
no

00:18.38
Adz
All right, well, don't put the Kawhi laugh in.

00:18.69
youcantcompthis
ah can try and make like a funny um loud noise if you want

00:27.88
Adz
All right, welcome everybody to episode 165 of the You Can't Comp This NBA Trading Card Podcast. We're your hosts, Adam, Amy and Russell Gibson.

00:39.16
Adz
ah No introductions, it's an emergency pod.

00:40.62
youcantcompthis
Now straight into an ad, I'm actually real keen for this. Not our normal recording session, but let's literally just get straight into it. So it's a pretty decent sized trade. I think that's the the best way to describe it.

00:57.16
Adz
Well, not many trades are warrant an emergency podcast, but this could this could really impact the, but well, i'm not so much the card market, maybe, maybe the but the top of the East and West standings possibly.

01:01.06
youcantcompthis
That's it.

01:10.52
youcantcompthis
Yeah, definitely. So the wolves are reported to receive Julius Randle, Dante Divincenzo and a first round pick from Detroit.

01:23.04
youcantcompthis
The trait isn't actually 100% finalized, but the what I read about the peak is that it's top 13 protected. So that could take a very long time to convey, considering how bad Detroit is at the moment.

01:33.60
Adz
to turn into an actual.

01:37.73
youcantcompthis
And then in return, the Knicks get Carl Anthony town. So it's kind of a funny one because actually I think this solves a lot of problems for the Knicks just in one foul swoop.

01:47.91
youcantcompthis
So the Knicks needed someone to play center for them. So towns can do that.

01:51.27
Adz
Yep.

01:53.58
youcantcompthis
And actually I think it sort of unburdens their offense a little bit where every shot and every possession that the ball is in Randall's hands. And, you know, let's be honest, he's a very proficient and NBA player, but

02:02.00
Adz
yep

02:06.08
youcantcompthis
you're probably better off to have those possessions running through Jalen Brunson at this stage of his career.

02:10.38
Adz
You probably don't want point Randall every second position.

02:13.44
youcantcompthis
Yeah, that's right.

02:14.31
Adz
Yep.

02:14.53
youcantcompthis
So, you know, I think that's really interesting. And so the third part of this trade is that for it to actually, you know, go through and be approved by the league, a third team has to enter and take some salaries on.

02:24.19
Adz
Hmm.

02:28.03
youcantcompthis
So the Charlotte Hornets have agreed to enter into that, but not exactly too sure, you know, what that is going to be.

02:33.89
Adz
Okay.

02:34.83
youcantcompthis
But My sort of fantasy at this point is that Mitchell Robinson gets moved from the Knicks, gets sent over to the Hornets, so the Hornets you know enter into this space, get a really nice, good, young, prospect big man that you know they don't really have to you know rush along at any particular rate. And the Knicks unleash a little bit of salary, so that's probably the next thing if we want to start talking about this.

02:59.40
youcantcompthis
Let's have a bit of a chat about the salaries that these guys are going to be making because towns is really interesting. So for the next four years, this is what towns will be making in millions of dollars, 49, 53, 57, and then 61. The last year is a player option, which if I'm going to be paid $61 million dollars a year, I'm going to opt into that. So you can almost guarantee that the Knicks are going to be paying this guy $61 million. dollars that fourth year and then on the flip side you look at Randall's contract so 28.9 in 24-25 and then he's got a player option for 30.9 the year after and probably in my head with the salary cap going up and where everything's going and like Randall's really just come off an all NBA season not that long ago so I think he could easily increase that to 40, 45 or 50 right like when you think about that in terms of

03:39.62
Adz
Hmm It's it's gonna be very interesting.

03:54.51
youcantcompthis
future salary.

03:58.48
Adz
I don't I don't particularly know how the new the new cap is gonna shape what the salaries look like.

04:05.10
youcantcompthis
yes so Yeah, Yeah.

04:07.24
Adz
Because cause the percentage is, I don't know, I think we're in a weird space where things don't look right or they do, like we're getting unders or we look like overs.

04:16.61
youcantcompthis
Yeah, sure.

04:17.99
Adz
um

04:18.23
youcantcompthis
So basically the best way or the easiest way to think about is how much Jaylen Brown is getting paid. That's like the new Max, you know, moving forward.

04:26.25
Adz
Yeah. Yeah.

04:28.56
youcantcompthis
So the way I think about that is, you know, Randall's getting less than Brown. So, you know, obviously there's a bit of room there. I actually don't think Randall is a true Max player, but if he's getting eight or $10 million dollars a year less than Max, I think that will be, you know, perfectly reasonable and and kind of in a weird way too.

04:47.45
youcantcompthis
Actually, I think this fit is better for the wolves also because for me, there was a lot of,

04:52.05
Adz
sure.

04:52.89
youcantcompthis
size overlay with Go Bear and Towns there so actually I feel like maybe Randall is a more pure fore than what Towns is and so you know actually I don't yeah yeah

05:03.95
Adz
I think it gives them the function, ah it they will work better in tandem, I think. than than Towns and Go Bear did. From a defensive perspective, maybe not so much, but they've now got their, like, Randall's a prolific offensive rebounder.

05:23.04
Adz
So he's that hustle guy that's going to want to be there. Go Bear's going to get down the other end of the floor. I think they'll work, like their strengths and weaknesses really work well together.

05:28.78
youcantcompthis
Yeah, right.

05:32.94
youcantcompthis
Mesh together.

05:33.90
Adz
Yeah.

05:33.94
youcantcompthis
Yeah. Yeah. I think if you've got a gun to my head and you ask me who won this trade, for me, it has to be the next because I think the best player out of this deal is Kat.

05:45.66
youcantcompthis
So there's that. That's where my head is probably sitting at the moment in terms of that. But then on the flip side, I almost feel like the wolves here are playing the long game. So If you sort of look at their roster and their roster construction, I sort of think to myself, well, realistically, Edwards is the number one in Minnesota.

05:57.15
Adz
Yeah.

06:06.25
youcantcompthis
And so do you want to be then paying Carl Anthony Towns 53, 57 and 61? So in the scenario that Randall's money comes off the books and let's just say he plays one year there, then he leaves and you know, they've all that salary cap space that gets opened up.

06:12.29
Adz
Yeah.

06:17.23
Adz
Yeah.

06:25.69
youcantcompthis
What will they put into that? So that's the other thing too. I sort of feel about this trade. I feel like from the wolves end, you know, it's not really done yet because what else are they going to do with that tap space and in that and what happened there?

06:35.08
Adz
Yeah. I think i think the wolf, there's an argument to be made that it's a win-win trade in my eyes, but I actually think the wolves have come out better Overall, I think they got more they they gained more from the trade.

06:46.07
youcantcompthis
Okay.

06:48.79
youcantcompthis
Sure.

06:49.11
Adz
are They probably got the best player in cat now This guy tends to go missing in big moments. So that's to be seen we'll see what the impact is but in additional in addition to Julius Randall, they've also got a depth piece Do you know what I mean like having Yeah as a as a as a bench player.

06:58.40
youcantcompthis
Yeah.

07:03.58
youcantcompthis
Are you talking about David Cenzo now? Sure.

07:11.03
Adz
So they've also they've added a by by they've turned that one asset into a into a complimentary pace for Go Bear and an off the bench um shooting presence.

07:20.98
youcantcompthis
yeah

07:24.20
Adz
I think losing Divincenzo might actually be one of those things that the Knicks regret.

07:28.78
youcantcompthis
Yeah, yeah. So the, the David Censo part is a little bit interesting for me because I actually, in my head, I was like, is this just an afterthought? And is it not so much of a big deal? But actually doing a tiny bit of, you know, digging into this, it's probably more of a bigger deal than I've initially thought.

07:47.07
youcantcompthis
So his next three years is 11.4, 11.9 and 12.5 million, which is in these day and age is very, very reasonable considering the fact that, yeah, he could start for you or it could be your sixth man.

07:55.73
Adz
That's cap friendly for sure, yeah.

07:59.98
youcantcompthis
So I think, you know, he'll be fine in that space there. No team will player option. So in terms of, you know, value for the contract that increases the value there, but this is the standout statistic for me.

08:10.66
youcantcompthis
So shot 40.1% from the three point line. made 3.5 three-pointers a game so then you say okay what's the the relevancy of that 3.5 makes per game well that puts him at fourth in the league behind Steph Curry, Luca Doncic and CJ McCollum in terms of makes per game but if you actually go a little bit deeper on that you look at the total makes actually he's he's right up there because he played 81 games last year CJ McCollum just played 66 Luca 70 Steph Curry 74 so in terms of

08:30.61
Adz
Hmm.

08:39.19
Adz
Yeah.

08:45.09
youcantcompthis
you know, pure volume, like it's it's a really big loss. And probably I'm leveraging a little bit here about what Simmons was talking about the other day. He was saying, well, there's also a space where David Cenzo and Anthony Edwards are playing the backcourt at the same time.

09:02.46
youcantcompthis
I think that's a really good observation in the you know in the current and the new NBA.

09:02.53
Adz
Yep.

09:06.18
youcantcompthis
But the thing I'll push back on and what they said about Kyle Anthony Towns was, well, then Towns will go in and shoot those shots that Demon Cenzo is now not taking but you go yeah but but wait two seconds right so go through that list so I chucked the link in there right for the ESPN ratings on three-point line you show me where Karl Anthony Towns' name is on this list he's not even top 50 so I think the expectation for someone to be fourth in the league when

09:17.16
Adz
Yeah, that's a good point. Yep. Yeah, exactly.

09:37.07
youcantcompthis
in my mind practically he's probably even a little bit higher up that list just because of the number of games that he played and then expect someone to come and he's not in the top 50 at all and sort of you you know prop up those shooting numbers like that is a massive ask for someone so look I hope I'm wrong about this you know it'd be a wonderful story that Towns comes to New York and you know shoots the lights out and rebounds the ball well actually if I want to say like one thing what Towns needs to do in a fib system he needs to

09:42.77
Adz
Yep.

09:50.65
Adz
Yeah, that's true.

10:06.06
youcantcompthis
you know, make a lot of defensive reads as the big guy. I think that's where he's going to struggle the most. He's never been, you know, an outstanding defensive player, but you know, how many rebounds a game is this guy going to get?

10:17.50
youcantcompthis
Like, I think, I think that's going to be really hard because it's kind of funny, like the Knicks are a big team, but OG is not a big power forward.

10:18.18
Adz
Yeah that's true. Yeah.

10:26.46
youcantcompthis
Bridges is a big two guard. I'll give you that. But do you know what I mean?

10:29.95
Adz
Yeah.

10:30.10
youcantcompthis
Like Jalen Brunt is not a particularly, you know, big lead guard, you know, so Actually, I think a lot of the rebounding responsibilities is going to fall to cat. So I feel like I'm almost talking myself out of this in some ways, like as much as I think he's the best player in the trade, I don't think it's going to be a cakewalk for him in New York, actually.

10:47.43
youcantcompthis
So yeah, it's.

10:48.99
Adz
I definitely don't think it's gonna be a cakewalk. um i think it's very I think it's a very interesting trade in the sense that, I don't know, the eggs in one basket, I don't know if you've been paying attention to Carl Anthony Town through his career, but him being the one that you're all in on is never a yeah never a safe bet.

11:10.17
Adz
And I don't know, his his shooting can and just disappear.

11:13.03
youcantcompthis
Do you think the Knicks are all in on Karl-Anthony Towns?

11:16.84
Adz
It's all in on him as far as what he's bringing to the unit. Like he's because he's not gonna be a dependable shooter. He claims to be one of the best big big big men that, yeah, yeah.

11:26.15
youcantcompthis
Of all time. Of all time, yeah.

11:28.92
Adz
And he's nowhere near it, right? Like, he yeah, he had some good shooting, but I don't know. I think they're gonna miss the firepower and the consistency of David Cenzo.

11:37.79
youcantcompthis
Yeah. Yeah.

11:39.55
Adz
I'm off the bench.

11:39.83
youcantcompthis
Like ultra consistent when you think about it. And I actually, to be honest with you, I think I missed that in the last 12 months and from a fantasy basketball point of view too, you know, like, I feel like that's a real, that's a real radar thing, isn't it?

11:49.04
Adz
Yeah.

11:52.51
Adz
Yeah, he's, I don't know.

11:52.81
youcantcompthis
So.

11:53.99
Adz
Like, I just, I think Minnesota got the better package, I guess, out of it.

11:58.33
youcantcompthis
Yeah. Yeah.

11:59.36
Adz
Consistency-wise. And look, ah I'm not doubting the impact he's gonna have on the Knicks. I do think Cat is gonna be a positive with this group. And, and I mean, I've recently talked about this.

12:14.27
Adz
I think the Knicks are, like going to be the top of towards the top of the east top four at least like it there they're not going down as a result of what they've packaged up um um I'm very happy to see if they can prove me wrong and finish top of the east that'd be interesting but

12:18.90
youcantcompthis
They're pretty loaded now. Yeah.

12:30.24
youcantcompthis
Yeah. So just on your comment about putting all your eggs into one basket with towels, just hear me out for two seconds. ah Rank these players. Jalen Brunson, Raquel Bridges, OG, Josh Hart, and Carl Anthony Terlins.

12:48.54
Adz
I would have, where do I have cat? Or where does cat have cat?

12:51.67
youcantcompthis
Yeah, no, rank those five players. You rank those five players.

12:54.73
Adz
Okay.

12:56.06
youcantcompthis
Yeah.

12:57.05
Adz
All right, so Bronson at number one.

12:58.96
youcantcompthis
Yep.

13:00.05
Adz
um I'd have Bridges at number two. I'd have Cat at three.

13:04.35
youcantcompthis
Yeah, that's right.

13:04.94
Adz
who And who was left?

13:07.42
youcantcompthis
So you got Josh Hart then and OG.

13:09.14
Adz
Josh Hart's six man, but yeah, to me.

13:11.93
youcantcompthis
So ESPN says that Hart's going to start.

13:15.45
Adz
Wow, okay.

13:16.28
youcantcompthis
Yeah.

13:17.14
Adz
That'd be interesting.

13:20.15
Adz
But yeah, i look, I think Kat thinks he's probably number two there.

13:24.06
youcantcompthis
Yeah.

13:26.34
Adz
And thinks, and and there's part of him that says,

13:26.93
youcantcompthis
But I think that's why it's also going to be successful, though, because I don't think it's number one. And this also goes back to the jail in Brunson.

13:34.21
Adz
but he can be that, dilu if he at any point thinks he's the number one guy, this experiment this Nick's experiment could go, could pear shape very quickly.

13:38.69
youcantcompthis
Yeah.

13:41.98
youcantcompthis
Yeah. Yeah.

13:45.02
Adz
I mean, he's caused problems in Minnesota.

13:47.90
youcantcompthis
Yeah, totally.

13:48.42
Adz
with with trying to be the guy or trying to claim he's the guy.

13:52.16
youcantcompthis
Yeah.

13:52.66
Adz
um I don't think we're gonna get that in, I don't think we're gonna get that in Minnesota. I think there's a clear opening for the number two.

14:04.10
Adz
Cause Go Bear just sits quietly.

14:04.38
youcantcompthis
i think I think the number two is Randall and...

14:08.09
Adz
Yeah, that's what I mean. Like Randall's happy to go in there and be the second option when Ant isn't over handling the ball.

14:09.31
youcantcompthis
Yeah.

14:12.97
youcantcompthis
yeah

14:16.37
Adz
I think the real, Not struggle, I think the coaching balancing act here is to to space out the the court time with, aunt and Randall, so that Randall becomes that second ball handling.

14:30.11
youcantcompthis
Yeah.

14:30.15
Adz
He gets his time in the sun.

14:31.32
youcantcompthis
When Edwards is on the bench, yeah.

14:32.65
Adz
Correct, yeah.

14:33.37
youcantcompthis
yeah

14:34.43
Adz
Yeah, stagger that out just to, you know, keep your stars happy.

14:38.44
youcantcompthis
Yeah, definitely.

14:39.32
Adz
But it's definitely an opportunity for Randall to step up and be in the spotlight again, I guess, for the right reasons.

14:44.12
youcantcompthis
Yep.

14:46.66
youcantcompthis
Just that he's in Minnesota, so it's sort of less of a spotlight as not as much as New York now.

14:51.60
Adz
I don't know, I feel like um Anthony Edwards might be trying to spin shine a spotlight on on on Minnesota.

15:01.20
youcantcompthis
All right. Let's talk some card dollars. comps, populations, and let's tie this one off mate. It's going to be a ah real quick one. We've already, you know, you can't comp this way. but We've already gone overtime, haven't we?

15:15.25
Adz
Pretty much, pretty much. You knew it was gonna happen.

15:17.85
youcantcompthis
All right, Carlin Tinneytown's Silver PSA 10. Now, I think it's worth looking at the total population on this. So Total Gems is 493. The reason I say that, because I'm kind of like in my head, you know, 2015 was more of a Beckett time than a PSA.

15:26.23
Adz
Okay.

15:34.24
youcantcompthis
But really interestingly, 315 9.5s on Beckett and just 10 10s one black label looking at PSA that's 165 PSA 10 so you know let's just call it say 470 total for the pop yep last sold on this is 275 now he was down to 83 dollars at one point only just three sales ago so

15:42.04
Adz
wow

15:51.14
Adz
Okay.

16:02.67
youcantcompthis
You know, if you jumped in at 83, I think that's, you know, that's a fantastic buy. and Around that 275 mark, for me, I think that's current prices.

16:10.23
Adz
Mmm.

16:11.21
youcantcompthis
That's not future prices. I'm totally fine with that. You know, I think old time high for him is like 1,400. You know, normally I would be saying him going to New York, this is going to really spike up his value, but I kind of think Carl Anthony Towns has played out a little bit.

16:28.65
youcantcompthis
And I think this value that's here, You know, this might tick up a little bit at my got to maybe say 300 or something like that. But I'm still putting my money into Brunson at this point.

16:35.72
Adz
Yeah.

16:38.07
youcantcompthis
I think Brunson is just going to be an absolute star. So. sorry

16:47.41
Adz
Oh no, interesting pop count, that's all I can say.

16:51.49
youcantcompthis
Yeah, now Julius Randle is a funny one because he's still not on a card ladder at all. So had a quick look on to one thirty point.

16:58.81
Adz
Yep.

16:59.32
youcantcompthis
PSA 9 silver sold for 35 USD, another 9 sold for 18. There's a 10 here that sold for 45. So I think in terms of this point, I feel like to me this is more of a PC or only type acquisition.

17:14.56
Adz
Yep.

17:15.01
youcantcompthis
However, I do see a little bit of potential there for that to go off a bit because if the Wilbs have a really nice run and he blends perfectly with Edwards and he's like this sort of one-two punch,

17:23.35
Adz
Mmm.

17:25.41
youcantcompthis
maybe they're playing some pick and roll which doesn't sound like something Randall would do to be perfectly honest but I'm just trying to I'm just trying to find like that you know the silver lining here and you know maybe they get to the Western Conference Finals you know maybe that goes up a little bit but I think you're probably the expert on Julius Randall at this point so what's your thoughts on Randall?

17:29.65
Adz
It'd be more pick and pop with him, yeah.

17:44.24
Adz
Yeah, I, I... I um begrudgingly, I will say that, yeah, I definitely think he's in a, it's probably a PC um kind of player at the moment, but this could be this could be good for him.

17:55.21
youcantcompthis
yeah

17:57.22
Adz
Like the spotlight in New York, because I feel the pressure in New York, if you don't perform, your your value isn't seen by the hobby. um They're a weird bunch and they haven't seen a lot of success recently.

18:12.43
youcantcompthis
But he's been all MBA in New York and and then he's, these prices are still about $45, right?

18:16.23
Adz
he has He won um one most improved a few years back. And that's when that's when the real, I guess, that's when I thought things would have trended up for for Randall.

18:29.64
youcantcompthis
Yeah.

18:31.18
Adz
um Because there would have been, because this is the thing, like in 2021, even his base rookie was selling, because the highest price was 500 bucks in that crazy period for a base.

18:49.48
Adz
Even October, the start of 2022 is still a hundred dollar base rookie cut.

18:53.12
youcantcompthis
So he was he was all NBA in 22, 23 and 21 according to Stat News.

19:00.73
Adz
Yeah, 21-22 season, I'm pretty sure he was, was that when he was all most improved in the league?

19:05.96
youcantcompthis
but That might have been the year he was most improved, but yeah.

19:08.74
Adz
Yeah. Cause that would have made made sense for the little spike through that period, even though it was part of that sort of COVID nuts.

19:15.89
youcantcompthis
Yeah.

19:17.58
Adz
But you're right, it's probably one of those, um yeah, PC, pick up what you can. I suppose there's some higher end stuff that wouldn't be on on card ladder that you'd you'd probably go for with the numbered stuff over over just base or silver.

19:35.72
youcantcompthis
So you're not investing in Randall at this point in time.

19:38.14
Adz
I've invested enough in Randall. ah um Anyone's looking for some Randall one of ones, I've got,

19:47.31
youcantcompthis
Hit Adam up via DM.

19:48.43
Adz
That's it, I've got ah i've got i've got a few.

19:49.56
youcantcompthis
Alrighty, Dante Di Vincenzo. This is kind of an interesting one. This is like low end delight.

19:52.33
Adz
Yes.

19:54.11
youcantcompthis
$40 for a silver PSA 10. Population on this is big though, 827. So actually that's not that much difference to Randall, is it? Like I'd probably rather have a Randall than a Di Vincenzo at this point.

20:05.13
Adz
i'm So maybe we should generate this rather than for pop counts and stuff. ah That'll be that'll be late later for me, I'll do that.

20:15.55
youcantcompthis
Well, total gems for divincenzo is 861.

20:19.56
Adz
Okay.

20:20.21
youcantcompthis
For Randall. Oh, Randall is tough though, because it's not silver. So I'm not too...

20:26.67
Adz
But as that's why I'm like, yeah.

20:26.99
youcantcompthis
Oh, you think the stats will be on gem rate? Yep.

20:32.99
Adz
That's why, yeah. let's Yeah.

20:34.19
youcantcompthis
We can do that and do it offline as like a ah post or something you like that. um any Anything else you want to chat about before we sign off at?

20:43.50
Adz
ah Nothing, nothing from me aside from the trade, really.

20:47.86
youcantcompthis
Yeah, that was, that was fun.

20:48.50
Adz
and some It was good. It was it was nice. um I don't know. It's nice to see a big trade before before the season starts.

20:57.46
youcantcompthis
Yep. All right, guys, we're not going to have any sponsors with this show. This is just our, like our little sort of gift to you guys. It's an emergency pod. Thank you so much for listening.

21:07.93
youcantcompthis
We hope you enjoyed this as much as we enjoy making it. Adam, thank you as always.

21:13.32
Adz
Pleasure as always. will um We'll be back for for our regular scheduled programming soon.

21:14.22
youcantcompthis
Yep.

21:19.31
youcantcompthis
on Sunday.

21:20.68
Adz
Yes.