Episode 185: Jimmy Butler to the Warriors

Jimmy Butler is heading to the Warriors! What does this mean for Steph Curry’s legacy and his card market? We break down how Butler fits into Golden State’s system, the impact on Curry’s career narrative, and what this trade could mean for collectors moving forward.

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Transcript

00:24.60
Adz
Welcome to emergency podcast week here on the You Can't Compass NBA trading card podcast. I don't think I've i've had ah an active trade deadline week of lunacy like um like this week has been.

00:42.10
Russell Gibson
Perhaps we're taking liberties of the word emergency. Maybe we need to rephrase this.

00:47.17
Adz
We just wanted to have a chat. We weren't gonna be able to sleep unless we talked about this. Well, actually, I think I would have slept like a baby, honestly.

00:55.37
Adz
But this is the third big one.

00:55.43
Russell Gibson
It's been a great trade week.

00:56.53
Adz
it's come it's I'd say it's come in threes.

00:57.60
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

00:58.71
Adz
There are a number of things that that we um could talk about, but I think there's plenty for Sunday's show. but i mean this is a We talk about big threes in the NBA.

01:05.95
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

01:09.10
Adz
We had Luca first, we've had we've had Fox second, and now the man that I think I predicted wouldn't get traded has been traded.

01:12.55
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

01:16.79
Adz
That's Jimmy Butler.

01:18.06
Russell Gibson
This is what I thought that was going to get traded because he was so clearly on the trade market.

01:18.13
Adz
um

01:22.90
Adz
I just think no more, I thought nobody was silly enough to want him.

01:26.71
Russell Gibson
Yeah, right.

01:27.67
Adz
um Lo and behold, um talking of lunacy, all of a sudden along come the Golden State Warriors, who are crazy enough to want him.

01:30.86
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

01:36.12
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

01:39.43
Russell Gibson
So Kyle Anderson Wiggins protected 2025 first round pick.

01:46.61
Adz
Yep.

01:48.41
Russell Gibson
Miami also get PJ Tucker from the Jazz and who was just traded a couple of days before if I'm remembering all of this right.

01:53.75
Adz
Yeah,

01:55.29
Russell Gibson
Dennis Schroeder's on the move and then Detroit will get Lindy Waters and Josh Richardson, which Richardson's a nice little pick up. I don't know how much juice he's got left in the tank but Good to see that the Pistons are active in doing something in the trade deadline.

02:10.70
Russell Gibson
But I think we can, we can whittle this down and just talk about the two teams, can't we? We can talk about the Heat.

02:16.10
Adz
Yeah, look,

02:16.69
Russell Gibson
and We can talk about the Warriors. I think that's about it. So.

02:18.74
Adz
Heat warriors, Utah, look, Dennis Schroeder, I will quickly mention, um did refer to the trade-denlight period as modern slavery.

02:22.96
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

02:28.21
Adz
And the day after he quoted that, he was traded. So, I found that quite amusing. um Yeah, i think I think Utah might actually wave him. He might get picked up, but that's neither here nor there.

02:40.83
Adz
He might be ah an interesting piece.

02:41.33
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

02:42.99
Adz
But it's the warriors and the heat that he is,

02:43.27
Russell Gibson
I mean, he's he's a liquid commodity, that's for sure, isn't he? This guy, he's like ah a wimpy PSA 10.

02:49.90
Adz
he's he's become He's becoming a modern and NBA rainbow rather than just like the standard seven cards. He's gonna have all 30 jerseys at some point.

02:55.60
Russell Gibson
yeah Yeah. I mean, he's probably born 30 different jerseys when you think about it.

03:01.50
Adz
It's pretty crazy. All right, well who do we wanna go for first, the Heat? Or do we wanna go with the Warriors?

03:07.46
Russell Gibson
Let's do the heat first just because that's an easy one to do and then the rest of the time we can just spend talking about the Warriors.

03:12.98
Adz
Yeah, yeah.

03:14.33
Russell Gibson
So real I think hobby wise there's not a lot going on here. Like let's be sort of honest about this.

03:18.76
Adz
does it Does it affect BAM? BAM becomes the number one guy, right?

03:24.46
Russell Gibson
I think Harrow is technically the number one guy, isn't he?

03:27.49
Adz
like Okay, yeah, true, true, okay.

03:28.98
Russell Gibson
He was the the All-Star this year.

03:31.37
Adz
That's true, that's true. Interesting, maybe there's a vacancy at the number one spot in Miami now.

03:37.18
Russell Gibson
So look, hero might move a little bit, but I'm not expecting to see heaps of movement there. The population on that is just insane. So we can quickly gloss over that.

03:44.36
Adz
Yep.

03:44.67
Russell Gibson
Why don't we talk about Wiggins? Wiggins is a fun one because

03:47.60
Adz
Yeah, okay.

03:48.71
Russell Gibson
maybe a little bit like Zion, but has actually won a championship. You know, a heap of money has gone into this guy all time.

03:54.92
Adz
Yep.

03:56.78
Russell Gibson
I don't think all the data is going to be captured on this, um, with card ladder, but his PSA 10 at its peak sold for 669. Of course that was during COVID. Um, that was halfway through 2020 that sold for, and obviously it's just a straight downward line from that.

04:10.65
Adz
Mm.

04:12.11
Russell Gibson
It recently just sold for $52. These don't get traded a lot. So in the last 12 months, it looks like it's been traded about five times. There's not much going on at Theradore.

04:21.76
Adz
It's, it's not a, it's definitely not a hot commodity. That's for sure.

04:24.77
Russell Gibson
Yeah. Look, I think at this stage, it's fine. If you pick up one of these for $50, the population on it is 83. I don't think it's going to be a particularly stable or unstable stock.

04:37.26
Adz
Yeah.

04:38.03
Russell Gibson
Sort of is what it is. I think it's more of a PC purchase.

04:40.83
Adz
Agreed.

04:41.00
Russell Gibson
I don't see it moving up. Now he's gone to Miami.

04:47.65
Adz
What's he gonna do in Miami?

04:47.90
Russell Gibson
That's about all.

04:48.80
Adz
What's he gonna do in Miami? Like, are the heat just gonna have to rebuild now, aren't they?

04:54.74
Russell Gibson
I don't think the Heat ever rebuild, do they?

04:56.99
Adz
Nah, they kind of retool more than anything.

04:59.57
Russell Gibson
The funny thing is I actually don't see it as a massive talent downgrade from Jimmy Butler to Wiggins. I think Wiggins can be passive. I definitely think that like, you know, Butler's a lot more aggressive, but Wiggins is a super talented guy and he plays both ends.

05:14.67
Russell Gibson
He's probably a better rebounder than Butler is.

05:16.93
Adz
Yeah. Yeah. Okay.

05:18.35
Russell Gibson
So it's not an insane, you know, dip down for the heat.

05:18.83
Adz
Yeah. Interesting.

05:22.48
Adz
Yeah.

05:23.39
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

05:23.69
Adz
But I still don't, I don't think it moves the needle too much on the heat. The warriors on the other hand.

05:26.73
Russell Gibson
No.

05:29.11
Adz
Yeah. Let's move to the warriors. Cause I think, I think they're, they're the talking point, aren't they? They're, they're the ones that are, that are trying to reopen their championship window.

05:33.34
Russell Gibson
Sure. Yeah.

05:38.86
Adz
And, um, who does this impact most? I think the the most important one is Steph Curry.

05:44.21
Russell Gibson
Yeah, I think actually from my perspective, I would actually like to see the worries have done something like this last year or the year before because

05:52.71
Adz
Too little too late, you reckon?

05:54.22
Russell Gibson
I think a little bit because each you know a year that goes on, Steph's just getting that one step slower and Draymond is losing two steps a year at the moment. He's not losing one step a year. ah he's He's just about cooked it.

06:05.46
Russell Gibson
He's just living on intelligence these days. He's such a smart basketball player.

06:09.03
Adz
Yeah.

06:10.45
Russell Gibson
But physically, it's almost like go back and watch some of his old stuff. It's comical how fast he could actually, you know, you used to be able to move and get up and down the court.

06:19.16
Adz
yeah

06:20.01
Russell Gibson
Um, do I like this for the Warriors? Actually, I like it a lot because it's just a, so they give him a two year contract extension, which is the perfect amount of time for Jimmy Butler to be on a team. After two years, he's going to one out, which is perfect.

06:29.94
Adz
Yep. Yeah.

06:32.62
Russell Gibson
In another two more years, Steph is probably going to be retired. So again, they're not, you know, stitching up their future cap space for this guy that isn't going to fit their timeline. I think this is totally, it's a very metered and measured risk.

06:45.67
Russell Gibson
I don't see any problem with it.

06:47.69
Adz
yeah

06:47.96
Russell Gibson
I think the other thing too is like, if we want to use the Chicago Bulls analogy, if he's the Dennis Rodman coming in, who's a bit of the crazy person, a bit of the wild child, but he's coming into a very veteran, well-established locker room.

06:51.94
Adz
Mmm.

07:01.16
Russell Gibson
Actually, I've said this before, I think Steph is a very good leader. I think Draymond will be able to keep him under check.

07:06.90
Adz
Well, that was but gonna be my next point.

07:07.22
Russell Gibson
this

07:08.42
Adz
Is Draymond gonna knock him out or is he gonna work with him? Because I feel like there's there'ss get there there's issues already.

07:11.49
Russell Gibson
There's been heaps of memes

07:15.26
Russell Gibson
There's, yeah, there's been memes going around about that ad, but I actually think that's, I think that's a very superficial sort of view on it, because if you think about Draymond on the Olympic team, you know, those heaps of A plus studs on that team, he didn't have any problems at all.

07:22.89
Adz
Okay.

07:30.76
Russell Gibson
I think actually chemistry wise, you know, he was maybe a little bit too chill from some of the reports that were coming out of the Olympic stories about him being at massage parlors and all that type of stuff at three o'clock in the morning.

07:41.68
Russell Gibson
um Let's just move on from that. hey

07:44.63
Adz
Mmm So you reckon that you reckon it's a good fit you think do you think the three of them is a big three Okay Mmm

07:45.63
Russell Gibson
What I'm trying to get to, yeah, I think chemistry wise, he's going to be totally fine. And I i kind of think some people just understand each other and and also think too. Like he's actually not the type of teammate that's, um, he did go out after Jordan Poole, but he's not, that actually isn't his reputation.

08:04.24
Russell Gibson
His reputation in the league is going after the opposition, right?

08:08.02
Adz
that's truery That's true.

08:08.54
Russell Gibson
So I think people who are like working hard, you know, doing all the right things and playing the right way, I think, and Jimmy Butler fits that. There's no problem there for the dream on that.

08:17.27
Adz
That's true.

08:18.46
Russell Gibson
That doesn't fuss me one second, man. Yeah.

08:21.01
Adz
Yeah.

08:21.18
Russell Gibson
Um, let's talk about Jimmy Butler cards though, because actually this is worth talking about. So silver PSA 10 population on this is just 24.

08:25.00
Adz
Okay.

08:28.35
Russell Gibson
This is the 2012 card. And this is just for a little bit of history here. This is the, um, the year that there was two draft classes chucked into one.

08:35.02
Adz
the The lockout was it was it yeah, there was a look like a half-season lockout year.

08:36.12
Russell Gibson
Yep. Yeah.

08:39.18
Adz
There's no rookie shield on the Correct Yeah, mm-hmm

08:40.48
Russell Gibson
No look rookie logo, but this is still considered these rookie cards. So it's a bit of a funny one, but yeah. So now this is really interesting. Population on this is 24. Last sold for $1,000. This has been as high as 2007, as in $2,700. $2,500 this has traded for. So this has gone for some, you know, some big dollars and is still up, you know, really high.

09:06.19
Russell Gibson
Actually, I'm going to make a crazy claim on this. I think if he wins the championship, that would go higher. I think that's going to go to like 1415.

09:13.25
Adz
Really?

09:14.55
Russell Gibson
Yeah, I think that's some, yeah, I think there's some weird collectability about this guy too.

09:14.90
Adz
I mean, low pop count is insane, but I don't know.

09:20.39
Russell Gibson
And I also think he's a bit of a um weird unit, which which would kind of have that cult collector status in some people's eyes.

09:26.82
Adz
Okay.

09:27.82
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

09:28.65
Adz
Interesting.

09:29.06
Russell Gibson
And the fact that that's held that high for such a long period of time, I don't see him being traded to the warriors as like, you know, it's a going it down thing.

09:29.21
Adz
Yeah, all right.

09:36.02
Russell Gibson
So yeah.

09:37.33
Adz
Hmm.

09:38.50
Russell Gibson
Um,

09:38.52
Adz
Yeah, it's, yeah.

09:40.54
Russell Gibson
Steph, let's talk Steph. We're almost at the 10 minute mark already. Let's quickly get Steph Curry in.

09:43.93
Adz
Yeah, let's get, let's have some Steph talk.

09:45.52
Russell Gibson
All right.

09:46.57
Adz
Cause I think this is gonna, this is gonna make him break, make or break the end of his legacy.

09:52.88
Russell Gibson
This is a really cool one actually. So Steph Curry, four NBA championships. Also with four is LeBron James, Manu Ginobili, Shaquille O'Neal, Robert Parrish. Five championships, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Ron Harper, Dennis Rodman, Magic Johnson.

10:04.98
Adz
Yeah.

10:09.73
Russell Gibson
and George Mikan. And so going from four to five is a really big thing.

10:17.03
Adz
Yep, it's ah it's it's ah it's a huge step up on the mountain, right?

10:17.59
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

10:20.14
Russell Gibson
Yeah. And I think also too, you know, there's a heap of hobby love for this guy already. So it's not like he's a underappreciated, you know, low value card, anything like that. But I also do think that would give it more juice again.

10:28.98
Adz
It's stiff, like it's it's stiff, but this is, yep.

10:32.73
Russell Gibson
You know, I think that's a really fun one to talk about here in terms of, you know, legacy and and how we look

10:38.95
Adz
another championship might put him on Rushmore kind of thing. Do you know what I mean? Like it it it elevates him such a, such a ah fair, fair, much more like fair amount more. I don't know.

10:49.26
Russell Gibson
The, yeah, I mean, the Rushmore is tough because then you, then you're competing against Jordan, Kareem,

10:56.84
Adz
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. True. Could you, but you're in that.

10:58.73
Russell Gibson
Magic, LeBron. Like it's, it's tough to get to that Rushmore, you know?

11:03.06
Adz
I think with five, he's era defining and has his own.

11:04.03
Russell Gibson
Yeah. Mm.

11:06.67
Adz
Do you know what I mean? Like he becomes that plate, that face of that.

11:10.62
Russell Gibson
I think that also creates an eternal conversation about LeBron versus Curry for this generation too. Actually, who was the stud?

11:16.05
Adz
Correct. Correct. Yep.

11:18.30
Russell Gibson
You know, that's a fun one.

11:18.99
Adz
Yeah. Cause that that's the big joke, right? It's like the best player in like the Mo the, the big biggest player in Jordan's era was Jordan and Kobe's era was Kobe.

11:28.24
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

11:29.52
Adz
And then in LeBron's era, it was Steph.

11:32.14
Russell Gibson
Yeah. Yeah.

11:33.94
Adz
Like he doesn't get the goat More at the goat discussion because he wasn't the best player in his in his era Not to discredit LeBron.

11:39.89
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

11:42.44
Adz
He's done some amazing things as well Yeah,

11:45.19
Russell Gibson
All right, Steph Curry 2009 tops, this is just the base, PSA 10, $5,760 that last traded for.

11:49.81
Adz
yeah Yep

11:53.36
Russell Gibson
Population on that is 373. Now, if we go high end, numbered to 2009, this last traded for 24K. Now, actually really interesting on this, if you look at the last three years on this, this has taken a massive nosedive.

12:08.80
Adz
Mm-hmm.

12:11.27
Russell Gibson
Looking at that graph there actually looks to me like a quite nice long term by actually.

12:17.71
Adz
Yeah, I have a feeling that it's probably that 50K looking card long-term.

12:24.16
Adz
It probably is a ah crazy goodbye. But the base card, what do you think of the base card? Like that that's highest point was through the the COVID crazy period for 21K, or sorry, 18K, sorry, the base card.

12:32.63
Russell Gibson
Hmm.

12:37.99
Adz
Where does that sit? It's 5,760 at the moment. So that's a, what is it?

12:43.54
Russell Gibson
I mean the population isn't terrible.

12:46.76
Adz
373. That's actually a reasonable pop count.

12:49.52
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

12:52.62
Adz
I don't know. I don't know. It's always, Steph's always on my radar. um And yeah, auto or like rookie. Steph Curry is one of those ones that I think, I don't know. He's never gonna really be forgotten.

13:07.78
Russell Gibson
Look, my thing about cards like that is I just don't feel like there's a heap of value in it. And this is gonna sound like really almost petty, but it's literally just a base card.

13:15.62
Adz
Yeah.

13:21.38
Russell Gibson
Whereas I'm like, for 5000, could you get a patch autograph of him?

13:21.46
Adz
Yeah.

13:25.41
Russell Gibson
Could you get a really nice flawless autograph of him? You know, are you better off getting something like that?

13:28.98
Adz
I think that's ah it's a valid, it's a valid point like that.

13:31.90
Russell Gibson
Well,

13:32.75
Adz
Yeah.

13:33.72
Russell Gibson
I think my own sort of counter argument to that is, I think we all know that Steph signs a lot. Actually, are his autographs flooding the market?

13:40.07
Adz
Worth a lot.

13:42.99
Russell Gibson
And actually, are they not a great buy? And, you know, maybe actually at a population of 373, that's an awesome buy, but I just can't get my head sort of past that thing.

13:46.11
Adz
Yeah.

13:52.16
Russell Gibson
Yeah. We're talking about that on the last show we did with that sort of the value standpoint for some cards.

13:53.03
Adz
But

13:57.40
Russell Gibson
I just feel like sometimes you just get more value out of an autograph or a patch autograph, but yeah.

13:59.37
Adz
Yeah. Yeah. It's it's interesting though. you look at you don't We don't look at that Steph Curry with the same context as say, I won't call the Jordan rookie, but like a Magic Johnson. Do you know what I mean? It's a base card. That's all it is. But that's all there was at that point.

14:17.49
Russell Gibson
I actually don't mind direct comping this to Jordan. And the reason I say that is because I think it'd be really good to actually look at the population, you know, comparison between the two.

14:30.01
Adz
Okay.

14:30.89
Russell Gibson
Yeah. And it's the same thing. It's just a paper base card. You know, there's nothing, there's no prism about it.

14:35.98
Adz
Yeah.

14:39.70
Russell Gibson
There's no tiger stripe, you know, yada, yada, yada.

14:40.53
Adz
There's no fancy. It's just the base card. Yeah.

14:42.84
Russell Gibson
Yeah. So.

14:47.13
Adz
Isn't, isn't Jordan like the, the, the, the front of the card ladder is ah at the top of the card ladder.

14:47.17
Russell Gibson
Hey, I'm, I'm

14:52.86
Adz
No, it's not Jordan.

14:54.25
Russell Gibson
just gonna take a timeout because I can't find the, what I'm looking for. Cause otherwise this will just be too spaced out. I'm just gonna open up a sheet.

15:02.09
Adz
Yeah, that's cool.

15:04.01
Russell Gibson
Sorry, mate.

15:07.03
Russell Gibson
I reckon it was about 14.50.

15:09.37
Adz
Well, maybe we can do that as a deep dive, like comparing Jordan's progression to the steps.

15:10.05
Russell Gibson
All right, give me a sec. Sorry.

15:15.78
Russell Gibson
I reckon.

15:16.78
Adz
Maybe. Cause there were lots of Jordans printed in the nineties and that's a really interesting comparison. Do you know what I mean? Like the Jordan insert argument.

15:28.52
Russell Gibson
I'm having a real tough time finding this because even when I'm Google, like ah there's a heap of Jordan cards here.

15:36.81
Russell Gibson
Oh, hang on a second. If you change it to value, it'll be there. Okay, here it is. I had it on one year change. That's why.

15:46.29
Adz
But like the, the, what is it? PLC10.

15:49.92
Russell Gibson
Oh, actually this is super cool.

15:50.59
Adz
332.

15:51.81
Russell Gibson
Yeah, this is super cool. Alrighty. And so the 1986 Flea Jordan PSA 10 population on this is 332. Um,

16:06.78
Russell Gibson
what did this last trade for?

16:09.58
Adz
A lot.

16:10.40
Russell Gibson
$177,000.

16:12.93
Adz
Yeah.

16:13.66
Russell Gibson
Yeah, right.

16:17.77
Russell Gibson
So does that Steph Curry have a lot of legs?

16:21.54
Adz
A lot of legs.

16:22.77
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

16:24.14
Adz
It's definitely a...

16:26.89
Russell Gibson
Because Steph's not, yeah, Steph's multiple steps behind Jordan, but he's not that far. And there's a significant price difference between the two.

16:32.47
Adz
No. um And we're talking about impact, right? Do you know what I mean? Like impact on the game.

16:38.80
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

16:38.96
Adz
Maybe there is a comparison to be made.

16:41.72
Russell Gibson
I mean, this is the Ryan argument, isn't it? That Steph Curry is one of the best buyers in basketball.

16:44.11
Adz
Yeah. So in 2010, it was trading around that $6,000 mark, 2009.

16:52.91
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

16:54.92
Adz
Yeah, February 8th, 2009, so 16 years ago, 5,100 USD for the Jordan, PSA 10. Fast forward 16 years, and were and we're up near the 200K mark.

17:10.21
Adz
You know what I mean? like is Is that the kind of thing we're talking about? If Steph, say Jimmy and and Steph combined for two championships, is that what we're looking at? Or am I am i overshooting now?

17:23.61
Russell Gibson
I think it's tough for him to go all the way up to Jordan, but at the same time, I think he'll land somewhere between where he's currently sitting and where Jordan is.

17:32.03
Adz
Yeah.

17:32.35
Russell Gibson
I know that's a very easy thing to say, but I think he's got a lot of movement to go up. And when you're comping the base to his goal to 2009, which is currently trading at 24K, I think when you summarize it in those terms, that's an absolute home run, isn't it?

17:49.98
Adz
Yep. Yep.

17:52.83
Russell Gibson
All right, let's end this.

17:55.20
Adz
Yeah, let's tie it off.

17:55.37
Russell Gibson
Let's keep it short and sweet.

17:56.74
Adz
Yep.

17:57.60
Russell Gibson
We're going to be back this Sunday, guys. I hope you've enjoyed these little short podcasts we've been doing for the trade deadline. Thank you so much for listening.

18:04.04
Adz
That's our big three. for It's our big three for the week.

18:06.62
Russell Gibson
Yeah, we have had some really good numbers on these two ads.

18:06.84
Adz
So.

18:11.16
Russell Gibson
So thanks everyone who's taken the time out to listen to these. We hope you have enjoyed them and we'll see you Sunday, guys.

18:15.49
Adz
yeah Check them out on YouTube. We'll see you Sunday.