Episode 235: Timeless Moments – Billion-Dollar Projections, Retail vs Hobby, and Power Packs

 In this Timeless Moments episode of You Can’t Comp This, Russell and Adz dive deep into the state of the hobby with fresh data, collector insights, and a few laughs along the way.

Topics include:

• Target projecting trading card sales could hit $1 billion next year, while Walmart reports a 200% spike driven by Pokémon, Magic, and sports cards.
• The balance between retail and hobby boxes — accessibility, affordability, and the flipping culture that comes with it.
• The rise of Power Packs: instant online repacks, gambling-like mechanics, and whether this hybrid could reshape the future of collecting.
• Market data from Card Ladder showing $416 million spent on trading cards in August alone — proof the hobby is alive and growing despite the negativity.

From Pokémon’s mainstream impact to the appreciation of iconic legends like Jordan, Kobe, and Steph Curry, the guys explore why cards remain a tangible, respected asset in 2025.

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Transcript

00:01.13
Russell Gibson
Oh, was it?

00:01.96
Adz
Yeah, 230.

00:07.02
Adz
Welcome to episode 235 of the You Can't Comp This NBA Trading Card Podcast. Russell and I are back with another timeless moment following on from episode 234 where we did a bit of ah a check on the the pulse of the hobby.

00:27.06
Russell Gibson
yeah

00:27.80
Adz
Got a little bit more of a deep dive for those that are... that are really looking for the welfare and and health and wellbeing of the hobby.

00:35.00
Russell Gibson
We've ran out of time, but also too, it's been a minute since we did a timeless moment.

00:36.40
Adz
We did. It's timeless.

00:39.62
Russell Gibson
So this is good to actually jump back in on it.

00:39.99
Adz
Yeah.

00:41.81
Russell Gibson
So basically just if you didn't listen, you need definitely to go back and listen to it because you'll enjoy it. But basically we're just trying to say what's going on in the hobby.

00:49.45
Adz
Yeah. Yeah. Where are we at?

00:50.97
Russell Gibson
Yeah. So I found three interesting articles that we're going to break down in this episode. And this is from, unfortunately, our friends at Sports Cards Investor.

00:55.71
Adz
Mm-hmm.

01:00.37
Russell Gibson
Target says trading card sales could break a billion dollars next year, while Walmart reports a 200% spike fueled by Pokemon, Magic, and Sports Cards.

01:13.00
Russell Gibson
Collectors are chasing everything from 90s packs to the latest releases. Yeah.

01:17.52
Adz
Mm-hmm.

01:17.73
Russell Gibson
So I think the obvious initial reaction to that is, well, how much of this is sports cards and how much of this is TCG? And I think that does have to be said.

01:31.02
Adz
Mm, for sure.

01:32.92
Russell Gibson
But at the same time too, I think that that market is transient and those people will cross back and forward because I'm sure some of the people who are currently buying Pokemon had previously bought NBA.

01:46.04
Adz
Yep.

01:46.16
Russell Gibson
And then as the market shifts around again, which it you know eventually will, I think you know some of those people will sort of come back.

01:49.80
Adz
Yeah.

01:52.12
Adz
Well, I actually was also on that. I think there's the investor side of it. Now I've been in the TCG space ah with magic years and years ago.

01:59.89
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

02:00.63
Adz
um I see it a lot with Pokemon at the moment. What I don't see is people getting piles of slabs and shuffling them together as a deck of cards to play the game. They're actually investing in the cards as a, the same as we would with sports trading cards.

02:14.02
Russell Gibson
As a physical commodity, David Ralph.

02:14.40
Adz
So they're, Yes, they theyre they're actual tangible assets rather than acquiring them.

02:16.48
Russell Gibson
Yeah. Yeah.

02:20.18
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

02:22.73
Adz
I remember in the Magic the Gathering days, there were two different things. You would obviously have those rare cards that were worth a lot of money and the the the vintage cards that you couldn't play in the current, that you couldn't go to your local game store and play a standard constructed tournament with a card from 1993, but it's still worth a lot of money.

02:39.97
Russell Gibson
yeah.

02:42.45
Adz
um So yeah, like people are after the new shiny stuff because they want to play with it or they're after something alternative because they want to collect it and get it graded. And I think that's where we're, the space we're operating in, especially with Pokemon and graded Pokemon cards.

02:58.11
Russell Gibson
Look, I think my comment add to this is that retail is not going away. And I actually think it's a really important part of the hobby because for people that do want to do a rip themselves, retail is often the affordable thing.

03:12.61
Russell Gibson
So where I'm going with that is like when we're talking about our friends at Fastbreak Trading Cards, we quoted some of the hobby boxes, the $800 to hobby box. door open a hobby box Whereas you can get into blaster for, think it was $90 for the Mosaic 2425 they had.

03:28.80
Adz
Yeah.

03:29.04
Russell Gibson
So I think this market is really, you know, important for that, you know letting people access the hobby. I think the other thing we need to like mention here too, is that people also flip retail.

03:40.23
Russell Gibson
So there's that really strong driving force that under sort of undertones or underpins that where we've seen that in Pokemon where people have been fighting in shops. And remember not that long ago, people were fighting over m NBA stuff to flip.

03:49.50
Adz
yeah

03:52.19
Russell Gibson
So I think, you know, yeah.

03:52.99
Adz
um We're raging about bots taking away all the pre-orders and things from different websites.

03:56.84
Russell Gibson
Yeah, right. That's right.

03:57.99
Adz
and

03:58.40
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

03:58.48
Adz
And look, I think there's an ebb and flow to that and there's a supply-demand element to it. But, I mean, as the article says, i i don't think there's – I wouldn't be surprised if there's a billion dollars turned over in this collecting space from from cards.

04:13.74
Russell Gibson
Yeah. i think I think overall, this is where we're heading towards. like There is a very slow overall uptick that's happening in the hobby overall, and I think that's evidence of this.

04:20.57
Adz
Yeah.

04:26.52
Adz
do you Do you think Pokemon has brought it into the mainstream?

04:26.70
Russell Gibson
just like

04:28.90
Adz
Yeah. Yeah, true. Yeah. pokemon has brought it into the mainstream

04:33.89
Russell Gibson
i think there's a few things that's brought it into the mainstream. I think like you know Dennis O'Leary, who is famously on TV, you know then talking about it,

04:39.73
Adz
yeah

04:42.78
Adz
yeah true

04:43.68
Russell Gibson
there There was an article um that I saw on socials that I didn't add this to the run sheet where it was the like the director of eBay who was on there talking about their authentication program.

04:55.78
Adz
yeah

04:56.01
Russell Gibson
and Because they eBay stock price has significantly gone up and he was putting that he was directly correlating that to sports cards. and their authentication program. He said some bullshit like, oh, they've never had a problem with, what did he say exactly?

05:09.50
Russell Gibson
was something like, they've never let through a fake through their authentication to the best of his knowledge.

05:13.47
Adz
yeah and i'm like yeah yeah to the best of you like we' we've never been caught letting fakes through whatever yeah just yeah yeah den deny deny deny yeah yeah exactly

05:15.31
Russell Gibson
He said some wording like that. I'm like,

05:20.55
Russell Gibson
They've not authenticated that piece of data either. yeah yeah Anyway, um there's a couple of good comments on this here. Game over 1776. GameStop is the place for cards. So that what that means to me is like there's other places you can also buy cards from that's not included in this $1 billion. dollars I think that's 100%

05:36.82
Adz
Yep.

05:39.11
Adz
For sure.

05:40.79
Russell Gibson
There's one more that i want to really just quickly BS. This is from o Long Johnson. um The hobby is propped up by Pokemon and TCG shelves stocked and sports cards, imagery untouched in multiple locations per gem rate. PSA has had a 20% decline in year on year sport card submissions.

05:58.98
Russell Gibson
And I think there's some truth to that too. I think, and we sort of touched on that before, like we definitely acknowledged there was that whole Pokemon thing.

06:01.05
Adz
Mm-hmm.

06:05.29
Russell Gibson
Yep.

06:05.60
Adz
yeah Yeah, yeah, definitely, definitely. like there's there's But that's that brings diversity to the hobby, to like a diversity in in both suppliers and and and people participating within the hobby shows growth.

06:11.25
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

06:19.34
Russell Gibson
Yeah. ah This next one is from our friends at Card Ladder and also i would say some gem rates, some of the stats would have come from too. Online spending on trading cards tracked by Card Ladder reached $416 million dollars in August alone.

06:35.60
Russell Gibson
And that's a record for the hobby. And so i think I was asking you the question the last episode of like, you know, what's your pulse on the hobby? And I think your response was basically overall, it's very positive and don't let people...

06:47.93
Adz
Yeah.

06:49.92
Russell Gibson
know, influence you otherwise. I think the phrase you used was like, these people need to get their heads out of the sand. And I think this is the type of stuff where if you don't want to say someone, take your head out of the sand, what you could alternatively say to them is like, why don't you look at the projections from Walmart?

06:57.99
Adz
Yeah.

07:04.54
Adz
The data.

07:06.67
Russell Gibson
Why don't you look at the facts from Card Ladder where it's, you know, it's 416 million. And I think... i And I think for me, I find this actually quite refreshing because sometimes it's so easy to get caught up in the negativity of like, you know, the hobby is dying or, you know, this person's got scammed or, you know, this has happened like $460 million dollars in a month is

07:24.77
Adz
ah

07:27.84
Russell Gibson
ridiculous

07:28.85
Adz
So this is the data that's gone from around about 2020 through to 2025, right? like mean And you look at this little roller coaster.

07:33.29
Russell Gibson
yeah

07:35.98
Adz
See those little bits where it dips a little bit? Is that where the hobby's dying? Is that where everyone freaks out and and complains about the hobby dying? Like, it's... and And I'm not going to say I'm a financial expert.

07:49.61
Adz
I'm not going to say I'm going to lead and guide you with regards to...

07:50.66
Russell Gibson
Oh, and we're not. and we I don't think we've ever proclaimed that though, man.

07:55.16
Adz
No, no.

07:55.47
Russell Gibson
Yeah. yeah

07:56.38
Adz
But look at this. Look at this trend and look at the way it goes up. It looks very similar to the way stock prices go.

08:05.74
Russell Gibson
Just overall, over time, just sort tracks up.

08:06.00
Adz
It's trends. Yeah.

08:08.80
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

08:09.04
Adz
it It tracks up because they you create this demand.

08:14.67
Russell Gibson
I wonder a little bit if this is also to do with, yeah, the overall popularity is up. and I think that, and people are engaged in the hobby and sort of all these different sort of spaces and and levels.

08:20.61
Adz
Yeah.

08:27.63
Adz
and

08:28.53
Russell Gibson
But I wonder too, is like, how much of this is to do with like some really big cards that have just sold? So we had that,

08:34.81
Adz
But you bought the Jordan. There's the Jordan Kobe.

08:36.59
Russell Gibson
We had that, just that Jordan alone was, Jordan Kobe was 12 million bucks, right?

08:41.07
Adz
Sure.

08:41.71
Russell Gibson
Then we spoke about the Kobe one of one, which was 200,000. But

08:45.83
Adz
Yeah. But we looked at Kobe as an overall. We've looked at Jordan as an overall. And and we see those same data points.

08:50.19
Russell Gibson
but maybe that, yeah, but where I'm going with this ad is like, I wonder if, so if you rewind back the clock a little bit, maybe the average sale used to be

08:58.55
Adz
Yeah.

09:02.73
Russell Gibson
$25.

09:03.27
Russell Gibson
Whereas maybe now the average sale these days is like $50. Does that make sense?

09:07.10
Adz
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

09:07.71
Russell Gibson
Like just overall the hobby is just sort of like,

09:10.60
Adz
But we've seen an asset and we used Kobe last episode as ah as an example and we've used Jordan

09:14.33
Russell Gibson
it's the number of sales that's gone up, but I wonder if just the average or maybe the aggregated price of each card has just trickled up.

09:18.40
Adz
But yeah but but we we look at ah we we historically look at like a Jordan card, right?

09:20.97
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

09:24.92
Russell Gibson
Hmm.

09:25.70
Adz
So from 2020 to 2025, we look at a Michael Jordan card, go from $3,000 to $20,000.

09:33.87
Adz
That's reflected in these numbers. Like the actual transactional value of the higher end stuff is growing.

09:41.25
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

09:42.19
Adz
So if you, once again, we go back to the comment of it's actually a tangible like asset. These cards cards aren't depreciating. There's a lot of these, and obviously it's not every card, but what we're saying is the high-end stuff is is increasing in value because the demand is there.

10:00.80
Adz
There's never been a higher demand for Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, and obviously we're going to see it with Steph Curry and LeBron James in our basketball space.

10:09.26
Russell Gibson
yeah

10:09.57
Adz
But historically, if you go and out and buy a Herb Jones rookie card for $10, $10,

10:17.07
Adz
Spoiler alert, unless Herb Jones sets the world on fire in the world of basketball and becomes a clone of Victor Wembenyana, he's probably going to sell for...

10:25.59
Russell Gibson
youbi You be careful. You be careful what you're about to say, big fella. You be careful here.

10:30.41
Adz
You might be very lucky and get your $10 back in 10 years.

10:32.84
Russell Gibson
yeah How dare you?

10:34.51
Adz
It's if you're very lucky. You might just have to give it...

10:35.81
Russell Gibson
I'm going to double my money at least on Herb Jones.

10:37.57
Adz
you He'll be a throw-in somewhere. But you know what I'm talking about, though.

10:39.69
Russell Gibson
No way. No, I don't. I don't have no idea what you're talking about.

10:44.22
Adz
Maybe I shouldn't have picked on Herb Jones. We'll use someone else that's sort of lower profile. Luka Dantic. If he never wins, his cards are going to go from $2,000 to $200.

10:54.74
Russell Gibson
ah

10:57.15
Adz
If he never wins and all the press goes, the Lakers are terrible because Luka can't perform, blah, blah, blah, blah. blah

11:03.37
Russell Gibson
The worst case scenario for this guy, he's going to be a beloved Olympian and world champion who scored more points than anybody in the NBA.

11:08.10
Adz
Laker.

11:11.40
Adz
Euroleaguer.

11:13.83
Russell Gibson
Like that, I probably think at this point, this is where we're going with this guy.

11:17.70
Adz
but nico yeah

11:17.88
Russell Gibson
He's going like the next Kamala Anthony at the worst case.

11:21.18
Adz
But you you talk about when we talk about this side of the the data, we like the Steph Currys of the world, the Jordans of the world, the Kobys.

11:25.53
Russell Gibson
I love that take, by the way.

11:32.00
Adz
ah the height You go into different sports. You go into soccer. You go into it you say Messi in soccer.

11:37.30
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

11:38.00
Adz
Gretzky in in in in ice hockey. Do you know what i mean? Like the greats are never going to not be the greats.

11:46.04
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

11:47.46
Adz
So that this hobby is what where that value keeps appreciating. And I think things like Pokemon, I think that just grows the the the the number of people involved.

12:00.93
Adz
And I think that's always good.

12:01.36
Russell Gibson
Yeah. Yep. all Alrighty. So just going back to the first post, a comment from up, down, upright.

12:09.21
Adz
Yep.

12:10.00
Russell Gibson
GameStop Power Packs. So that's the first reference to Power Packs. We've spoken about this before before on the show. Just really quickly to refresh, that is where you buy an online pack, you open it, and they offer you instant buyback.

12:15.81
Adz
Mm-hmm.

12:20.16
Adz
Yes.

12:23.79
Russell Gibson
So you basically just, it's online gambling.

12:26.44
Adz
huh

12:26.87
Russell Gibson
it It's not online gambling. It is a loophole of online gambling, but you could consider it to be online gambling.

12:32.96
Adz
Yes.

12:33.66
Russell Gibson
um Moving on to the next post, And the third and final post that we're going to talk about today, this is from Nat Turner. He's basically just summarizing the facts again that what we just spoke about.

12:42.49
Adz
The card letter stuff, yeah.

12:44.33
Russell Gibson
$416 million. When you go into the comments on that, this is from at bockaintbtc. Wow. And PowerPacks is just in beta mode. So what I would interpret that to say is that

12:56.64
Adz
Mm.

12:57.53
Russell Gibson
These are going to be very, very, very popular with people. And this is also touching on what Matthew Hull was saying on our previous question and answer segment, where it's like he was talking about flippers, the gambling component of it, and the American influence um that sort of like trickles down into our hobby.

13:14.08
Russell Gibson
I kind of am beginning to believe in this power pack thing as changing the hobby. So in terms of like, they have access to the PSA vault where they can buy cards of people instantly, put them into these repacks and then you're selling them on mass to people and people love that instant hit.

13:35.39
Adz
yeah

13:36.87
Russell Gibson
Like it's there, like the logic is there, isn't it All right. fuck

13:41.57
Adz
It's, yeah.

13:42.64
Russell Gibson
Final thoughts on today's timeless moments ad. What have you got for me?

13:46.23
Adz
ah the The hobby is healthy and anyone that thinks it's not is still sticking their head in the sand. um But anyone that thinks investing in cards is silly and something that children do or it's a childish hobby,

13:55.55
Russell Gibson
yeah

14:04.54
Adz
probably need to read that article about the $12 million dollars Kobe Jordan card and realize that there's a serious hobby here that's actually, that that that that does have.

14:14.00
Russell Gibson
I mean,

14:17.22
Russell Gibson
I'll play devil's advocate on that, but that's just like me saying I don't understand LaBubu, which I don't, right? But ah you know what I mean? like

14:25.35
Adz
Sure.

14:25.47
Russell Gibson
it's It's horses for courses. like Of course, people aren't going to understand a whole bunch of like grown men collecting cards.

14:27.26
Adz
no, no, no, How many, how many Lou Boo Boo's from 1984 have you got? many look how many labuboos from nineteen eightyfour have you got

14:31.87
Russell Gibson
Of course, I'm not.

14:35.20
Russell Gibson
I don't have any LaBubu.

14:35.47
Adz
None because they're... No, but you've got none from 1984 because they've only been around for a year.

14:40.70
Russell Gibson
Oh, yeah, sure, sure.

14:41.09
Adz
you know what i mean? Like, this is this is not...

14:41.88
Russell Gibson
Yeah, yeah. It's a new it's a new craze, yeah.

14:44.34
Adz
This is not an overnight success. Pokemon's been around for 30 years.

14:48.29
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

14:49.35
Adz
Pokemon started in 1996.

14:51.43
Russell Gibson
We're old as shit, man.

14:52.40
Adz
So it's not...

14:53.21
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

14:55.17
Adz
This isn't something that's just a fad. This has always been in the in the in the spotlight, so...

15:01.20
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

15:02.06
Adz
I think trading cards are here to stay. Everyone knows that.

15:03.94
Russell Gibson
Yeah.

15:04.50
Adz
and they're And they probably should be given a little bit more respect in the in the asset department. That's all.

15:10.71
Russell Gibson
Actually, I'll tell you what, I'm going to make that this is going to be my closing thing.

15:16.53
Russell Gibson
i think people were looking for a card NFT and I think card NFTs failed spectacularly.

15:20.49
Adz
Yeah. Definitely. Definitely.

15:25.47
Russell Gibson
And maybe this power pack is the perfect hybrid of physical cards with a digital instant hit and delivery.

15:35.47
Adz
that that That dopamine hit or whatever you get.

15:37.50
Russell Gibson
Well, you can just go online at any time you want and buy your power pack and get instant rebuy.

15:41.87
Adz
Yeah. Yeah.

15:46.07
Russell Gibson
Somehow we turned pulse of the hobby into frothing over power packs.

15:50.85
Adz
Wow.

15:51.02
Russell Gibson
I'm okay with this.

15:52.16
Adz
Gamble responsibly. That's all I'll say.

15:53.99
Russell Gibson
Hang on a second.

15:55.30
Adz
Anyway.

15:58.94
Adz
anyway

15:59.07
Russell Gibson
Thanks, Ed.

16:00.29
Adz
Thanks for extending the previous episode. For those that didn't check it out, episode 234 the You Can't Comp This NBA Trading Card Podcast is where we start pulse of the hobby.

16:06.07
Russell Gibson
you know

16:10.80
Adz
And this is where we shut the machine off and we stop.

16:13.72
Russell Gibson
And say goodbye. Yep.

16:14.83
Adz
the The pulse has been checked. Good night, everyone.